Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9ac5…c7ac sports 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+3%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%129W / 93L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$27
14 days+$68
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$108
other 2% +$12
crypto 1% −$8
weather 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 75% -14.0%
≤30d 29 +15.1% +4.1% 72% 72% -2.8%
≤90d 144 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 56% -7.8%
all 222 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 57% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 57% -6.2%
10% -18.5% 50% -15.1%
15% -26.4% 31% -23.3%
20% -33.6% 17% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses129 / 93
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage172d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $62 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 +$33 +114%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $22 +$7 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$8 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $18 +$6 +33%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $13 +$5 +42%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $73 −$60 -82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$11 +38%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$15 +103%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $9 +$5 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $178 −$114 -64%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $120 +$58 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $87 +$33 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $65 +$21 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $47 +$18 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$12 +33%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$7 -67%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 +$8 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $9 +$2 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $7 −$1 -13%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $14 −$9 -63%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $10 −$8 -73%
Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $2 +$2 +104%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5 May 17 $9 −$7 -76%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Valencia CF: O/U 3.5 May 17 $23 +$7 +30%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $15 +$8 +57%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $9 +$5 +57%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $13 −$9 -71%
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $8 +$4 +52%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 May 16 $11 +$9 +83%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $18 −$17 -99%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 09 $13 +$4 +32%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 May 08 $6 +$7 +124%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $3 −$2 -66%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 05 $7 −$4 -54%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $31 +$7 +21%
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 1.5 May 04 $25 +$6 +23%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $14 +$11 +79%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 03 $21 −$7 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $62 13m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $29 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $22 6h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 55¢ $10 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $18 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $13 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $13 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $73 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $15 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $64 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $178 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $120 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $87 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $65 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $47 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $36 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $3 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 9d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $17 10d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.19 · official $61.19 (match) · 477 history records