Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

9A 0x9ac5…14d2 sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,348 (+23%) realized +$1,347 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%10W / 20L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$94est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+2.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	30	+13.4%	+2.6%	33%	33%	+7.6%
≤30d	30	+13.4%	+2.6%	33%	33%	+7.6%
≤90d	30	+13.4%	+2.6%	33%	33%	+7.6%
all	30	+13.4%	+2.6%	33%	33%	+7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.6%	33%	+7.6%
10%	-7.3%	33%	-2.7%
15%	-16.2%	33%	-12.1%
20%	-24.4%	33%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +46% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$287 vs −$100 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.44 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$1,347

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses10 / 20

Est. fees paid−$94

Open positions1

Markets (closed)30 / 42

History coverage6d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 30 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium?	Yes	9¢	10¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$407	−$400	-98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	Jun 27	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$49	−$48	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$526	+$552	+105%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 25	$548	+$369	+67%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$363	+$391	+108%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$101	−$100	-99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$146	+$166	+114%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$296	+$299	+101%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$182	−$179	-98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$102	−$100	-98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$281	+$320	+114%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 22	$195	−$193	-99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq?	Jun 22	$21	−$20	-97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$102	−$100	-98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 22	$102	−$102	-100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt?	Jun 22	$21	+$232	+1127%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$138	−$138	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$203	+$180	+89%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 22	$67	+$229	+344%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$102	+$136	+134%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$107	−$2	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	56m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY	37¢	$288	58m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	23¢	$102	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$102	2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$203	3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Fr	BUY	1¢	$20	14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Norway vs. Fr	BUY	2¢	$50	14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	17¢	$49	26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,078	26h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	48¢	$526	28h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	BUY	27¢	$186	31h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	30¢	$204	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	100¢	$917	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	59¢	$548	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY	16¢	$205	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	38¢	$161	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	54¢	$101	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$202	2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. C	BUY	5¢	$21	2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	27¢	$204	3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	100¢	$313	3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$146	3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs	BUY	3¢	$51	3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$296	4d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	40¢	$182	4d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 3 Algeria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	36¢	$102	4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$601	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.11 · official $303.76 · 62 history records