Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9A 0x9ac1…1518 politics 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$447per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$5
world 15% −$2
tech 15% −$2
other 14% −$2
sports 9% −$2
culture 7% $0
finance 7% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,009) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage81d
Avg bet$447
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 19 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R Jun 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,064 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $1,044 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $966 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $934 −$1 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $16 $0 -1%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Apr 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in April 2026? Apr 14 $994 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $163 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,082 20m
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $22 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $792 1h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $215 1h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $17 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 2h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 18h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R SELL No 100¢ $40 18h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $16 18h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,089 19h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $14 19h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next R BUY No 100¢ $10 19h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $165 19h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 19h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $771 20h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $248 20h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 20h
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,020 20h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 39h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 39h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 39h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 39h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 40h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $121 40h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.15 · official $59.15 (match) · 105 history records