Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

9A 0x9ac1…d0a7 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$36 (+11%) realized +$35 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown62%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-53.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-49.1%	-53.9%	40%	40%	+4.3%
≤30d	5	-49.1%	-53.9%	40%	40%	+4.3%
≤90d	5	-49.1%	-53.9%	40%	40%	+4.3%
all	5	-49.1%	-53.9%	40%	40%	+4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-53.9%	40%	+4.3%
10%	-58.4%	20%	-5.7%
15%	-62.4%	20%	-14.8%
20%	-66.1%	0%	-23.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -49% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$7 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$35

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown62%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$6	−$6	-99%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Jun 15	$101	+$11	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	67¢	$6	14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	15¢	$5	14h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	SELL No	94¢	$112	38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	BUY No	84¢	$101	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.66 · official $100.66 (match) · 8 history records