trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 13 | +18.3% | +7.0% | 77% | 69% | +8.2% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +19.7% | +8.3% | 67% | 61% | +8.1% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +15.2% | +4.3% | 57% | 52% | +7.0% |
| all | 27 | +9.4% | -1.0% | 59% | 52% | +5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.0% | 52% | +5.5% |
| 10% | -10.5% | 41% | -4.6% |
| 15% | -19.2% | 33% | -13.8% |
| 20% | -27.1% | 26% | -22.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $10 | $8 | −$2 (-18%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-29%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 24 | $77 | −$5 | -6% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? | Jun 23 | $42 | +$5 | +11% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $42 | +$18 | +42% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $42 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $38 | +$6 | +17% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $21 | +$10 | +46% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $5 | +$3 | +64% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | Jun 20 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 20 | $5 | +$3 | +53% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $16 | +$9 | +56% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $5 | +$7 | +131% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $7 | +$2 | +24% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$2 | +82% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET | Jun 13 | $2 | +$5 | +235% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 04 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? | Apr 04 | $8 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Mar 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6AM ET | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 11 | $4 | +$3 | +77% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1? | Mar 02 | $4 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? | Mar 01 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? | Mar 01 | $5 | $0 | +6% |