Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9abc…58d5 sports 1612 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1582W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$424
weather 20% +$33
other 15% −$76
crypto 2% +$3
finance 2% +$3
politics 1% −$89
tech 1% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 194 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1496 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.9%
all 1611 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$32 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1582 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1611 / 1612
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 28¢ 27¢ $56 $54 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 13 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: HL tauri Esports vs Soul's Heart Esport (BO1) - Asi Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Junhan Zhang Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Verso Time - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
WTT - Men's Singles: Simon Gauzy vs Kanak Jha Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Banja Luka: Ella Haavisto vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $57 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 100¢ $100 15h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $100 17h
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $100 25h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $100 44h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 100¢ $100 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 100¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 100¢ $98 3d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 100¢ $594 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $100 4d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 100¢ $594 5d
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban BUY Lokomotiv Kuban 100¢ $100 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.00 · official $54.00 (match) · 3500 history records