Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9A 0x9abb…3f96 sports 1160 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,115 (-2%) realized −$3,117 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%706W / 436L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$839est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$263
7 days+$480
14 days−$3,092
30 days−$3,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$3,723
other 18% −$183
world 10% −$293
politics 3% +$281
crypto 2% −$83
tech 1% +$57
weather 0% −$23
finance 0% −$24
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +5.2% -4.8% 66% 59% -6.8%
≤30d 433 -5.7% -14.6% 64% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 1142 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 48% -11.5%
all 1142 -7.7% -16.5% 62% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 48% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -20.0%
15% -31.7% 18% -27.7%
20% -38.4% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$54 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized−$3,117
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses706 / 436
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$839
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1142 / 1160
History coverage86d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 89¢ 90¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Ben Shelton 80¢ 79¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 75¢ 78¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 17 $36 +$86 +242%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $827 +$90 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $763 +$64 +8%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $152 +$44 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $436 +$98 +22%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $448 −$264 -59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $86 +$39 +46%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$54 -53%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $445 +$80 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $76 +$21 +28%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 −$27 -89%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $103 +$5 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 16 $133 +$66 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $248 +$89 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$147 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $238 +$77 +32%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $124 +$11 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$34 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 +$77 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $201 +$25 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $67 +$15 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 83¢ $101 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $31 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 32¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $100 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $827 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $827 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $763 7h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $196 7h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY No 82¢ $25 9h
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists SELL No $0 9h
David Møller Wolfe: 1+ assists BUY No $5 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 77¢ $122 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $335 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No $0 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 92¢ $184 12h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $448 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 14h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 33¢ $10 14h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $130 15h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $24 16h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $125 17h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $106 17h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 100¢ $44 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $48 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $627.77 · official $637.78 · 2739 history records