Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:40:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9A 0x9aba…4b1e sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,582 (-62%) realized −$1,624 · open +$42

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate19%5W / 22L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$51est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$216

7 days−$1,645

14 days−$1,645

30 days−$1,645

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-49.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	-44.6%	-49.9%	19%	19%	-69.6%
≤30d	27	-44.6%	-49.9%	19%	19%	-69.6%
≤90d	27	-44.6%	-49.9%	19%	19%	-69.6%
all	27	-44.6%	-49.9%	19%	19%	-69.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.9%	19%	-69.6%
10%	-54.7%	19%	-72.5%
15%	-59.1%	19%	-75.2%
20%	-63.1%	19%	-77.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -80% → late -12% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$107 vs −$99 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized−$1,624

Unrealized+$42

Win rate (resolved)19%

Wins / losses5 / 22

Est. fees paid−$51

Open positions2

Markets (closed)27 / 29

History coverage8d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Under	44¢	100¢	$33	$75	+$42 (+127%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Over	44¢	44¢	$33	$33	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$32	+$65	+206%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 28	$32	+$48	+152%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$32	+$103	+325%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$35	−$35	-100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$102	−$102	-100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	Jun 26	$102	+$157	+154%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$102	−$102	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	Jun 25	$102	−$102	-100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	+$161	+158%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$102	−$102	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	44¢	$34	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$34	21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	32¢	$32	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	23¢	$32	2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$32	2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	40¢	$35	3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	35¢	$102	3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	19¢	$102	3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	39¢	$102	3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	26¢	$102	3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	39¢	$102	3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$102	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$102	4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$102	4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	22¢	$102	4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	31¢	$102	4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$102	4d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5)	BUY Morocco	21¢	$102	5d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)	BUY Morocco	39¢	$102	5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	28¢	$102	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$102	5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	26¢	$102	5d
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	38¢	$102	6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Uzbekistan	34¢	$102	6d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	22¢	$102	7d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	38¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	19¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	33¢	$102	7d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.87 · official $107.87 (match) · 56 history records