Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9aba…5aee sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,354 (-35%) realized −$5,316 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%29W / 30L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$328
14 days−$672
30 days−$672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,426
other 6% +$197
crypto 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +68.5% +52.4% 75% 75% +63.1%
≤30d 9 +49.8% +35.5% 67% 67% -52.7%
≤90d 9 +49.8% +35.5% 67% 67% -52.7%
all 59 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 46% -40.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 46% -40.6%
10% -24.0% 44% -46.3%
15% -31.3% 37% -51.5%
20% -38.1% 32% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$297 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,316
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses29 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage183d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 63¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Jun 27 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $81 +$49 +60%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$123 +179%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $45 −$20 -44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $48 +$41 +84%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$47 +171%
Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5 Mar 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (-3.5) Mar 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q Feb 12 $289 −$87 -30%
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5) Jan 30 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 27 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $1,100 +$274 +25%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jan 26 $400 +$811 +203%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 26 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $316 +$498 +158%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 26 $200 +$117 +59%
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruud Jan 26 $1,500 +$700 +47%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 26 $477 −$477 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 24 $100 +$156 +156%
Celtics vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jan 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score Jan 19 $67 +$38 +56%
SS Lazio vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Jan 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-01-19? Jan 19 $77 +$87 +112%
Konyaspor vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Score Jan 19 $67 +$34 +51%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $73 +$41 +56%
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Scor Jan 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $3 −$1 -21%
LoL: DRX vs T1 (BO3) Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $311 +$69 +22%
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Bruins vs. Blackhawks Jan 18 $100 +$93 +93%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jan 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-6.5) Jan 17 $90 +$76 +85%
Toledo Rockets vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Jan 17 $150 +$55 +37%
Al Najmah Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jan 16 $63 +$29 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $25 −$11 -44%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $152 +$43 +29%
Celtics vs. Heat Jan 16 $100 +$52 +52%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Sc Jan 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: Both Teams to Score Jan 10 $35 −$35 -100%
USC Trojans vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Jan 10 $33 +$22 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 63¢ $38 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, SELL Abus Magomedov 100¢ $209 1h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Abus Magomedov 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Farman Hasanov 99¢ $130 2h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $81 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $191 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $69 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 30¢ $25 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $45 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 99¢ $89 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $48 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Raptors vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 52¢ $80 100d
Spread: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (-3.5) SELL Prairie View A&M Panthers 51¢ $96 100d
Spread: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (-3.5) BUY Prairie View A&M Panthers 53¢ $100 100d
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $68 100d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q SELL Passion UA 46¢ $184 135d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q SELL Passion UA 46¢ $13 135d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q SELL Passion UA 46¢ $5 135d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: American Q BUY Passion UA 66¢ $289 135d
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Djokovic (+2.5) BUY Sinner 61¢ $5,000 148d
Botafogo FR vs. Cruzeiro EC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 148d
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 55¢ $6 151d
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 55¢ $21 151d
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 55¢ $6 151d
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 55¢ $62 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 139 history records