Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9A 0x9ab8…b124 sports 366 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-1%) realized −$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%343W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$17
14 days−$384
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$354
crypto 0% −$10
weather 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$20
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 284 -1.0% -10.4% 99% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 354 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -10.6%
all 354 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 1% -10.6%
10% -19.5% 1% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$42 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses343 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)354 / 366
History coverage68d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Leo Lagarrigue vs Charles Bertimon Charles Bertimon 100¢ 100¢ $220 $220 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kayseri: Bogdan Seleznev vs Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Anna Kmiecik 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Bolszewo: Anastasija Adeikyte vs Nika Hurkacz Nika Hurkacz 100¢ 100¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente Yes 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente Gabriele Maria Noce 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Men Bourg-En-Bresse: Completed Match: Leo Lagarrigue vs Charles Bertimon Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Men Kayseri: Completed Match: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Yes 100¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Women Bucharest: Completed Match: Giulia Safina Popa vs Melinda Bi Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Dinard: Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi vs Capucine Cedillo- Vayson De Pra Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Bucharest: Giulia Safina Popa vs Melinda Biro Jun 17 $600 +$1 +0%
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $152 $0 +0%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
ITF Women Haskovo: Completed Match: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Koroko Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Korokozidi Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Saoirse Breen vs Lana V Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Mariia Masiianskaia vs Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Men Constanta: Completed Match: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Men Constanta: Completed Match: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Lig Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Vid Mohar Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
ITF Women Kayseri: Completed Match: Ustiniya Lekomtseva vs Semra Aksu Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Women Kayseri: Completed Match: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Adelina Lachinova vs Liliya Piskun Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Matthew Dellavedova vs Jun Hao Luo Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $220 $0 +0%
ITF Women Zhengzhou: Completed Match: Ran Yang vs Ekaterina Yashina Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $600 +$1 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Uisung Park vs Thantub Suksumrarn Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $268 $0 +0%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
ITF Women Taipei: Completed Match: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $248 $0 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Ye Chen vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
ITF Women Taipei: Completed Match: Gyeong Seo Lee vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Sapporo: Yuhan Liu vs Shiho Tsujioka Jun 17 $164 $0 +0%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
ITF Irvine: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
ITF Men Irvine: Completed Match: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Women Irvine: Completed Match: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Em Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Men Irvine: Completed Match: Noah Zamora vs Kelly Giese Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Kelly Giese Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Asuncion 2: Completed Match: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Oscar Jose Gutierrez vs Luis Garcia Paez Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $368 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Joaquin Guilleme vs Niccolo Ciavarella Jun 16 $193 $0 +0%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $133 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Izan Almazan Valiente vs Luka Talan Lopatic Jun 15 $96 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss Jun 15 $504 +$5 +1%
ITF Men Mungia-Laukariz: Completed Match: Pietro Marino vs Pavel Lagut Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pietro Marino vs Pavel Lagutin Jun 15 $121 $0 +0%
ITF Casablanca: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Luna Vujovic Jun 14 $297 $0 +0%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 14 $420 +$4 +1%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Lourdes Ayala Jun 13 $213 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Haydar Cem Gokpinar vs Maxwell Mckennon Jun 13 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kayseri: Bogdan Seleznev vs Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin BUY Cem Christopher Kucukhuseyin 100¢ $150 2m
ITF Men Bourg-En-Bresse: Completed Match: Leo Lagarrigue vs Charles Be BUY Yes 100¢ $50 22m
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Leo Lagarrigue vs Charles Bertimon BUY Charles Bertimon 100¢ $220 22m
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 100¢ $20 46m
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 100¢ $18 52m
ITF Men Kayseri: Completed Match: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan BUY Yes 100¢ $18 53m
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 100¢ $35 53m
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Yes 100¢ $102 56m
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 100¢ $20 1h
ITF Women Klosters: Completed Match: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold BUY Emily Seibold 100¢ $64 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano BUY Anna Kmiecik 100¢ $22 1h
ITF Women Haskovo: Completed Match: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Koroko BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
ITF Haskovo: Valeriya Strakhova vs Elena Korokozidi BUY Elena Korokozidi 100¢ $105 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano BUY Anna Kmiecik 100¢ $62 1h
ITF Bucharest: Giulia Safina Popa vs Melinda Biro BUY Giulia Safina Popa 100¢ $522 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Anastasija Adeikyte vs Nika Hurkacz BUY Nika Hurkacz 100¢ $2 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Anastasija Adeikyte vs Nika Hurkacz BUY Nika Hurkacz 100¢ $64 1h
ITF Women Bucharest: Completed Match: Giulia Safina Popa vs Melinda Bi BUY Yes 100¢ $64 1h
ITF Bucharest: Giulia Safina Popa vs Melinda Biro BUY Giulia Safina Popa 100¢ $78 1h
ITF Dinard: Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi vs Capucine Cedillo- Vayson De Pra BUY Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi 100¢ $78 2h
ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Ro BUY Yes 100¢ $64 2h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Rocco Valente BUY Gabriele Maria Noce 100¢ $64 2h
ITF Men Constanta: Completed Match: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Mariia Masiianskaia vs BUY Yes 100¢ $78 2h
ITF Men Constanta: Completed Match: Kai Thompson vs Edoardo Cherie Lig BUY Yes 100¢ $78 2h
ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja: Completed Match: Saoirse Breen vs Lana V BUY Yes 100¢ $64 2h
ITF Kayseri: Mandegar Farzami vs Lan Mi BUY Lan Mi 100¢ $1 3h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Vid Mohar BUY Andrej Nedic 100¢ $3 3h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Vid Mohar BUY Andrej Nedic 100¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.19 · official $815.87 (match) · 927 history records