Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9ab3…3044 sports 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$755 (-11%) realized −$924 · open +$169
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$757
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -22.8%
≤30d 52 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -22.8%
≤90d 52 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -22.8%
all 52 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 38% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -41.9% 29% -30.2%
15% -47.6% 17% -36.9%
20% -52.7% 15% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$67 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$812
Realized−$924
Unrealized+$169
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions5
Markets (closed)52 / 57
History coverage2d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D ex-MANA eSports 39¢ 58¢ $219 $327 +$109 (+50%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Falcons Esport 73¢ 72¢ $219 $217 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 40¢ 69¢ $102 $177 +$75 (+74%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Camilo Ugo Carabelli 29¢ 32¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Luka Pavlovic 37¢ 26¢ $59 $42 −$17 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $28 +$25 +90%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 21 $47 −$46 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $49 +$51 +103%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $46 +$12 +26%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $57 −$55 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $667 −$103 -15%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $6 +$4 +70%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 21 $107 −$105 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $1 +$2 +124%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $124 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $79 +$35 +44%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $32 −$31 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $7 +$11 +152%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Hamish Stewart vs Aleksandar Vuk Jun 21 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $157 −$154 -98%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 21 $205 −$204 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $124 +$32 +26%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Jun 21 $212 +$28 +13%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $46 +$54 +119%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South Americ Jun 20 $39 +$11 +27%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $135 +$21 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $862 +$140 +16%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $39 +$13 +35%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 20 $166 −$164 -98%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoff Jun 20 $45 +$5 +11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $150 +$43 +29%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $617 −$169 -27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $338 −$83 -24%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $67 +$90 +134%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $214 +$41 +19%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $61 −$13 -21%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $354 +$120 +34%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $224 +$476 +212%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $23 −$23 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $47 −$47 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $87 −$85 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $80 −$79 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Luka Pavlovic 37¢ $60 13m
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports $3 49m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 40¢ $104 56m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 73¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $111 2h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY ex-MANA eSports 42¢ $109 2h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 73¢ $113 3h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 73¢ $3 4h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 73¢ $8 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 74¢ $14 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 74¢ $1 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 29¢ $46 6h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Carolina Royal Ravens $14 12h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Duty BUY Carolina Royal Ravens 21¢ $33 12h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 79¢ $46 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $9 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $35 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 14¢ $14 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $47 13h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 60¢ $51 14h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY G2 Minnesota 59¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina BUY QUAZAR 52¢ $28 16h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY ex-RUBY 18¢ $15 16h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY ex-RUBY 38¢ $37 17h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY ex-RUBY 37¢ $12 17h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY ex-RUBY 44¢ $44 17h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $165 18h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $20 18h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $115 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.45 · official $812.47 (match) · 179 history records