Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9A 0x9aad…fa47 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$196 (+12%) realized +$175 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$90
politics 10% +$60
crypto 4% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 56% -21.5%
≤30d 9 -5.0% -14.1% 67% 56% -21.5%
≤90d 11 +15.0% +4.0% 73% 64% +1.1%
all 15 +14.6% +3.7% 73% 67% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 67% +2.1%
10% -6.2% 60% -7.7%
15% -15.3% 60% -16.6%
20% -23.6% 40% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$94 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage130d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 86¢ 96¢ $179 $200 +$21 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $170 +$11 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $41 +$18 +45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$18 +43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $67 +$57 +85%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $105 +$56 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $170 +$109 +64%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $70 +$101 +145%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $108 +$61 +56%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Mar 01 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Feb 10 $159 +$60 +38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $99 +$61 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 86¢ $181 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $170 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $43 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $96 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $67 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 4d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 31d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $170 31d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $70 45d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 108d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 58¢ $109 127d
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? SELL Yes 98¢ $219 127d
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? BUY Yes 71¢ $159 129d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 62¢ $99 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.25 · official $199.21 (match) · 31 history records