Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9aaa…8d2e sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+10%) realized +$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 25% -33.2%
≤30d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 25% -33.2%
≤90d 4 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 25% -33.2%
all 4 -42.1% -47.6% 50% 25% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.6% 25% -33.2%
10% -52.6% 25% -39.6%
15% -57.2% 0% -45.4%
20% -61.4% 0% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Yu-Hsiou Hsu 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $47 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Ryan Seggerman 60¢ $35 1h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 51¢ $20 2h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle SELL Yu-Hsiou Hsu 4¢ $0 2h
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle BUY Yu-Hsiou Hsu 22¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 93¢ $50 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $47 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 8 history records