Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9aa4…d448 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$3
sports 26% −$26
other 24% −$2
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -33.3% -39.6% 33% 0% -44.5%
≤90d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 60% 0% -33.9%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage373d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 7? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Dec 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 22? Dec 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russell Wilson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 20 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 20 $730 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 20 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India? Oct 17 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $160 on September 13? Oct 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,800 and $3,900 on September 1 Oct 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 15 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 15 $745 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $10 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 20 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 20 $326 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 16 $336 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jun 16 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 09 $337 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $340 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $30 1h
Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 21d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $13 74d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 78d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 103d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 103d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 103d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 103d
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $36 106d
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $36 106d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 140d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $47 140d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 140d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 152d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $3 188d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 188d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 188d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $6 188d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 188d
Will Russell Wilson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL No 100¢ $38 207d
Will Russell Wilson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY No 100¢ $14 207d
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 22? BUY No 100¢ $11 207d
Will Russell Wilson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY No 100¢ $24 207d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 214d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 215d
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 215d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $4 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.22 · official $29.22 (match) · 121 history records