Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9aa1…36f6 sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$114 (-0%) realized −$112 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%85W / 49L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$1,166
14 days−$1,100
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$46
other 28% −$437
tech 6% +$86
crypto 4% +$50
finance 2% +$20
world 1% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -40.9%
≤30d 76 -13.0% -21.3% 51% 38% -13.0%
≤90d 133 -7.9% -16.7% 63% 32% -10.6%
all 134 -7.8% -16.5% 63% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -10.4%
10% -24.5% 18% -19.0%
15% -31.8% 11% -26.8%
20% -38.5% 5% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$63 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses85 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions4
Markets (closed)134 / 138
History coverage100d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $217 $215 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $156 $159 +$3 (+2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 62¢ 62¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 56¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $13 −$12 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $22 −$16 -71%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $140 +$38 +27%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $105 +$46 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $156 −$17 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $255 −$40 -16%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $42 −$6 -14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 21 $204 −$44 -21%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 21 $161 −$161 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 21 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $307 −$307 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $389 +$187 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 +$9 +39%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$7 -14%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will Morocco win on 20 Jun 20 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $74 +$15 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $271 +$136 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $350 −$121 -35%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $32 +$18 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $70 +$6 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $259 +$16 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$4 -4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $162 −$112 -69%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $158 +$54 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $182 +$52 +28%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $60 +$42 +69%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $76 +$8 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $136 −$63 -46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $275 +$42 +15%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $230 +$57 +25%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $54 +$13 +23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $352 +$59 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $31 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $12 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $18 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $38 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $67 5h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 11¢ $3 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 15¢ $9 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $5 18h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $57 18h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $21 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $11 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $10 19h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $7 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $22 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $12 20h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 34h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $24 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 89¢ $178 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $32 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $108 42h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $152 43h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 70¢ $36 44h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $69 45h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $139 46h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $0 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $69 47h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $38 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.56 · official $538.57 (match) · 740 history records