Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:52:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a9d…1401 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%25W / 36L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$7
other 39% −$8
politics 8% +$2
crypto 5% +$1
sports 4% +$11
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 11% -9.1%
all 61 +1.3% -8.3% 41% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -8.6%
10% -17.1% 5% -17.3%
15% -25.1% 5% -25.3%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses25 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage490d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $29 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 +$2 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $90 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $98 −$5 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $5 −$1 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $39 −$2 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2 +$1 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $52 +$5 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $10 +$6 +54%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 23 $21 −$2 -8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 20 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 07 $1 $0 -7%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $16 $0 +2%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 28 $21 +$1 +3%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $22 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $28 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $48 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $55 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $55 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $41 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records