Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a98…0fcb world 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$4
other 26% −$10
politics 6% $0
culture 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$7
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 9% -10.4%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 9% -10.4%
all 34 +2.0% -7.7% 44% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -16.6% 3% -19.0%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.9%
20% -32.0% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage482d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $16 −$1 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $76 −$3 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $24 −$11 -47%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 18 $11 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 11 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 23 $1 $0 -8%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +4%
Austin Peay vs. Queens Mar 20 $7 +$7 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 41h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 85¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 85¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 20¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $16 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records