Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a95…abeb world 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-6%) realized −$27 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day54.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$3
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$36
other 34% −$42
culture 12% −$15
sports 8% +$57
finance 3% −$4
tech 2% +$2
economics 2% −$1
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -10.1% -18.7% 14% 11% -8.0%
≤30d 40 -16.3% -24.2% 12% 10% -14.2%
≤90d 40 -16.3% -24.2% 12% 10% -14.2%
all 40 -16.3% -24.2% 12% 10% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 10% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 8% -22.4%
15% -38.1% 8% -29.9%
20% -44.2% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$3 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)40 / 49
History coverage13d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day54.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 49¢ 31¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-36%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 32¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+93%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 27¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+213%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? No 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 −$2 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $21 −$8 -38%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$7 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +353%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +116%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$3 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 11 $16 −$4 -27%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $15 −$13 -85%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $10 −$8 -84%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$3 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -1%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 09 $33 +$64 +196%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -22%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$2 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $12 −$3 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -16%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $8 −$2 -20%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $51 −$14 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $8 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 29¢ $0 3m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 29¢ $0 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 28m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 34¢ $0 38m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 32¢ $0 44m
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 59m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 59m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 27¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 21¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 20¢ $0 1h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 28¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 1¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 14¢ $0 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 3¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $0 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 22¢ $2 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $1 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 49¢ $2 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 49¢ $3 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.14 · official $32.56 (match) · 735 history records