Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a94…b335
sports · 122 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$557 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$573 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$573
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses48 / 70
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)118 / 122
History coverage184d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 4 History 118 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$59
14 days+$80
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-8%)
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-53%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) SE Palmeiras 55¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $11 +$17 +160%
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $41 +$19 +45%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $82 −$2 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 +$36 +248%
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $35 +$65 +189%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $13 −$5 -34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $79 +$21 +26%
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) May 30 $45 −$44 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $24 +$16 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $30 +$20 +65%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 May 28 $28 +$22 +78%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 May 28 $67 −$55 -82%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 3.5 May 28 $35 +$64 +185%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$40 +414%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 May 24 $11 +$19 +170%
CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score May 24 $26 −$2 -8%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5 May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 17.5 May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to Score May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 21 $75 −$67 -89%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5 May 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CA Mineiro vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will SC Internacional vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? May 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 21 $136 −$136 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 May 21 $16 +$14 +83%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 21 $16 +$19 +114%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $52 +$47 +91%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $113 −$61 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $197 +$3 +2%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $39 +$79 +202%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $42 +$38 +89%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $39 −$30 -78%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $130 +$23 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $160 +$4 +2%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $57 +$95 +166%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $87 +$13 +14%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$25
sports 31% −$373
finance 18% −$289
world 16% +$26
crypto 1% +$1
politics 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $11 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $28 1h
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 202 SELL Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 69¢ $41 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 80¢ $80 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $1 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $81 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $29 20h
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 22h
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 3d
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $2 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 5d
Spread: SE Palmeiras (-1.5) BUY SE Palmeiras 55¢ $45 14d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 14d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $24 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 15d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 10¢ $12 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $24 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $22 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 16d
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.6% +3.7% 33% 33% +8.2%
≤30d 38 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 37% -20.6%
≤90d 89 -10.0% -18.5% 40% 34% -20.9%
all 118 -7.3% -16.1% 41% 34% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 34% -17.4%
10% -24.2% 30% -25.3%
15% -31.5% 28% -32.5%
20% -38.2% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.94 · official $35.94 (match) · 463 history records