Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a91…f11c other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized −$7 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$17
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 46% -14.6%
≤30d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 46% -14.6%
≤90d 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 46% -14.6%
all 13 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 46% -14.6%
10% -3.1% 31% -22.8%
15% -12.5% 23% -30.2%
20% -21.1% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 86¢ $42 $53 +$11 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$25 -42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$4 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$3 +292%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$37 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$7 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$5 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$8 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $35 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $68 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $51 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 31h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $32 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.61 · official $52.01 (match) · 27 history records