Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a91…946c weather 461 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$33 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%142W / 306L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$14
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$54
other 23% −$11
weather 20% −$2
world 14% −$5
economics 7% −$1
tech 5% −$6
culture 4% $0
sports 3% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -11.6% -20.0% 14% 1% -13.6%
≤30d 207 -4.0% -13.1% 28% 1% -10.9%
≤90d 448 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 4% -12.2%
all 448 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 4% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -12.2%
10% -20.0% 2% -20.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses142 / 306
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)448 / 461
History coverage52d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $79 $73 −$6 (-7%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+97%)
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 50¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary elec Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after t Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -71%
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tounde Yessoufou be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Austria finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb Jun 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Jake Lang be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida? Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -15%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -26%
Will Te Pāti Māori win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Republican Party win the WI-01 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -8%
Will Te Pāti Māori win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repr Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of New Zeal Jun 20 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz be the Democratic nominee for FL-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -13%
Will the median home value in Miami be greater than $1,237,000 on June Jun 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -23%
Will Seoul have 160mm or more of precipitation in June? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Taylor Green be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -17%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -23%
Will Jean Silva fight Movsar Evloev next? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -93%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Jun 20 $2 $0 -18%
Will Paulo Costa fight Carlos Ulberg next? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -82%
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chat Jun 20 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat? Jun 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $7 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $47 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 11h
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat? SELL No 88¢ $1 2d
Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary elec SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will John Rose win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Republican primary elec SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Amanda Septimo be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? SELL No 17¢ $0 2d
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 2d
Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after t SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader? SELL No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Tounde Yessoufou be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Austria finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Mark Kelly be the next Senate Majority Leader? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 2d
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Queb SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 18¢ $0 2d
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat? SELL No 77¢ $1 2d
Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.89 · official $122.93 (match) · 1859 history records