Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8e…9408 sports 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,337 (+1%) realized +$1,279 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%352W / 342L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$2,882est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,530
other 1% +$129
world 1% +$188
politics 0% +$15
tech 0% −$48
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +0.9% -8.7% 63% 58% -0.8%
≤30d 222 +7.8% -2.4% 56% 50% -3.8%
≤90d 694 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 47% -10.9%
all 694 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 47% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 47% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 43% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 36% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 26% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$183 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,749
Realized+$1,279
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses352 / 342
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,882
Open positions12
Markets (closed)694 / 706
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$251
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 81¢ $328 $326 −$2 (-1%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $50 $200 +$150 (+298%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $178 $197 +$19 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 80¢ 71¢ $200 $178 −$22 (-11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 81¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 52¢ 61¢ $105 $121 +$17 (+16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Game Master 46¢ 4¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 20¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 315 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$13 +16%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $157 +$43 +28%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 +$25 +26%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $223 −$172 -77%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 +$318 +250%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $148 −$90 -61%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$67 -33%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $271 −$2 -1%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $237 +$114 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $85 +$15 +18%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $245 +$95 +39%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $139 +$35 +25%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $269 −$170 -63%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $585 −$73 -12%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -96%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $110 +$40 +36%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $110 +$55 +49%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 +$39 +64%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $113 +$15 +13%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $325 +$69 +21%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $108 +$77 +71%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$106 +52%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 15 $102 −$39 -38%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $132 +$52 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $68 +$47 +70%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $319 +$103 +32%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $104 −$77 -74%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $53 −$35 -66%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $102 +$106 +104%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$90 +82%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $225 −$185 -82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $149 −$147 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $116 +$54 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $137 +$20 +15%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $122 −$10 -8%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 46¢ $102 30m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 7¢ $7 48m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 34¢ $35 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $328 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $89 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 2h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 75¢ $150 7h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 78¢ $101 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 10¢ $1 9h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 60¢ $60 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 65¢ $39 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 7¢ $6 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 63¢ $9 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 63¢ $32 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 63¢ $22 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Spirit Academy 41¢ $16 10h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 79¢ $97 11h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 40¢ $51 11h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou SELL Spirit Academy 20¢ $26 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,749.07 · official $1,749.07 (match) · 3467 history records