Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8c…ba13 sports 336 markets active 3d ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$134,620 (-8%) realized −$134,620 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%185W / 151L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,813per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$10,300est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6,598
14 days−$10,608
30 days−$20,522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$221,093
other 13% +$86,652
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.0% -24.0% 52% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 88 -17.8% -25.7% 52% 47% -28.7%
≤90d 193 -7.7% -16.5% 57% 53% -15.1%
all 336 -8.3% -17.0% 55% 52% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 52% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 44% -24.4%
15% -32.2% 36% -31.7%
20% -38.9% 28% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$7,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,818 vs −$4,343 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses185 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$10,300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage524d
Avg bet$4,813
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $513 −$510 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,732 −$1,700 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1,318 +$924 +70%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 14 $972 +$349 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2,546 −$2,515 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $2,015 +$427 +21%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2,354 +$735 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,452 +$901 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,172 +$283 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $801 +$371 +46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $420 −$416 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $257 +$163 +63%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $162 +$96 +59%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $864 −$666 -77%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $908 −$889 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $206 −$204 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $113 −$111 -98%
Set Handicap: Samson (-1.5) vs Quevedo (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,222 −$1,110 -91%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $2,467 −$2,250 -91%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2,330 −$2,300 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $2,193 +$1,197 +55%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Perricard (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,518 +$891 +59%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1,711 +$466 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,909 +$324 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $811 −$740 -91%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,676 +$763 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,974 +$187 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,315 +$655 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1,840 −$935 -51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,569 +$682 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $834 +$734 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1,812 −$381 -21%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1,294 −$76 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $824 −$820 -100%
Set Handicap: Hontama (-1.5) vs Yang (+1.5) Jun 11 $282 −$282 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $181 +$103 +57%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $121 +$60 +50%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 11 $71 +$50 +71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $36 −$36 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,052 −$1,018 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $886 +$167 +19%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $355 +$530 +149%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $311 +$45 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,439 −$1,418 -99%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $725 +$42 +6%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $198 −$198 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 09 $109 +$91 +84%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $267 −$264 -99%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $269 +$108 +40%
ITF Messina: Giacomo Crisostomo vs Vito Antonio Darderi Jun 09 $1,232 −$1,212 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 75¢ $513 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,732 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $2,243 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $1,318 3d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 73¢ $972 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 59¢ $2,546 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 99¢ $2,443 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 84¢ $1,708 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 75¢ $80 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 66¢ $228 3d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 76¢ $2,354 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,452 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $1,454 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 80¢ $1,172 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,171 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $801 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $420 4d
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano SELL Jacob Fearnley 99¢ $420 4d
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano BUY Jacob Fearnley 60¢ $257 4d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $258 4d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 62¢ $162 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Rinky Hijikata 99¢ $40 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 89¢ $36 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata SELL Dino Prizmic 15¢ $157 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Dino Prizmic 76¢ $827 4d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 27¢ $908 4d
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova BUY Anastasia Tikhonova 57¢ $206 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $113 5d
Set Handicap: Samson (-1.5) vs Quevedo (+1.5) SELL Quevedo $65 5d
Set Handicap: Samson (-1.5) vs Quevedo (+1.5) SELL Quevedo $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1853 history records