Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a8c…8312 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-9%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$39
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +9.1% -1.3% 73% 73% -21.2%
≤30d 11 +9.1% -1.3% 73% 73% -21.2%
≤90d 11 +9.1% -1.3% 73% 73% -21.2%
all 11 +9.1% -1.3% 73% 73% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 73% -21.2%
10% -10.7% 73% -28.7%
15% -19.4% 55% -35.6%
20% -27.3% 27% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$41 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$89 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$31 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $41 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $15 30h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $59 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 4d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.38 · official $140.38 (match) · 21 history records