trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 42¢ | 42¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $51 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $43 | −$1 | -3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 11 | $34 | +$1 | +4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 11 | $47 | −$1 | -2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $41 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $47 | −$1 | -3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $43 | −$1 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 08 | $2 | +$1 | +36% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | Jun 25 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? | Apr 07 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 3-4 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' | Apr 03 | $15 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 03 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 44% | 11% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 44% | 11% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +4.5% | -5.4% | 44% | 11% | -9.0% |
| all | 23 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 48% | 4% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.8% | 4% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -20.2% | 4% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 4% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 0% | -33.2% |