Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a86…84ec
weather · 576 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,603 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,563 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,186
Realized−$4,563
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses326 / 153
Open positions179
Markets (closed)479 / 576
History coverage5d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day635.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 179 History 479 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,917
7 days−$4,563
14 days−$4,563
30 days−$4,563
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? No 93¢ 96¢ $277 $287 +$10 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $278 $285 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $243 $242 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $232 $242 +$10 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $239 $239 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 93¢ 96¢ $229 $236 +$7 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 92¢ 87¢ $195 $184 −$11 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 90¢ 88¢ $137 $134 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $132 $134 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $130 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 90¢ $135 $128 −$7 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $110 $115 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 91¢ 88¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 90¢ $91 $84 −$6 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $78 $84 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 99¢ $79 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $81 $81 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 87¢ 95¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $76 $79 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 88¢ 89¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $74 $76 +$3 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on April 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 13? Jun 14 $28 −$56 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 10? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 14 $289 −$449 -156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? Jun 14 $205 −$239 -117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 12? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 9? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 17? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? Jun 14 $296 −$354 -120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 11? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 23? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 7? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 on April 13? Jun 14 $7 −$14 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 9? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 10? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 7? Jun 14 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 12? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Jun 14 $168 −$213 -127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 80% +$1,813
crypto 20% +$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $3 18m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $0 18m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $17 22m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 28m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $32 28m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 33m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 33m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $26 34m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $12 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $24 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $6 54m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $22 56m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 479 +11.6% +1.0% 68% 25% -22.7%
≤30d 479 +11.6% +1.0% 68% 25% -22.7%
≤90d 479 +11.6% +1.0% 68% 25% -22.7%
all 479 +11.6% +1.0% 68% 25% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover635.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 25% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 14% -30.1%
15% -17.5% 13% -36.8%
20% -25.6% 12% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,186.39 · official $8,185.71 (match) · 3500 history records