Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9A 0x9a85…7f4e other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,715 (-3%) realized −$1,715 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$15
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$29
other 33% −$204
sports 22% −$1,469
culture 6% −$26
economics 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -18.7% -26.4% 12% 6% -13.5%
all 123 -8.9% -17.6% 16% 10% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 10% -11.9%
10% -25.4% 10% -20.3%
15% -32.7% 8% -28.0%
20% -39.3% 6% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$864) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$1,715
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)123 / 124
History coverage122d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $536 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,401 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,321 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 11 $209 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $589 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $208 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $209 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $209 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 05 $954 −$954 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $949 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,456 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,699 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $326 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $383 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $403 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $321 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $578 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2,213 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $537 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $644 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $645 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $864 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $866 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $861 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $862 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $921 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $922 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $819 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $857 11d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $957 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $958 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $744 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $745 12d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $780 13d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $782 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $845 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $846 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $888 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $890 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $209 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.29 · official $536.29 (match) · 349 history records