Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a85…70f5
weather · 730 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$85 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses297 / 417
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions15
Markets (closed)714 / 730
History coverage65d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 15 History 714 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$2
14 days−$62
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 24¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? No 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? No 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? No 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? No 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? No 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +494%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$19 +1059%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$18 +630%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$14 +268%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$16 +956%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 75% −$95
crypto 17% −$23
sports 6% +$4
other 2% −$16
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 35¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +2.5% -7.2% 37% 37% -8.7%
≤30d 537 -20.7% -28.3% 32% 31% -26.0%
≤90d 714 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 41% -14.0%
all 714 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 41% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 41% -14.0%
10% -24.1% 39% -22.2%
15% -31.5% 33% -29.8%
20% -38.2% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.01 · official $16.45 · 1754 history records