Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a82…aac3 world 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$3
politics 21% $0
other 17% +$4
sports 10% $0
culture 9% −$2
weather 3% $0
tech 2% −$4
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -13.2% -21.5% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 58 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.9%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage325d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $32 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $32 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Sep 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $1 $0 +19%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 19 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Aug 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Au Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $21 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump mention "Sydney Sweeney" again by Friday? Aug 08 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $29 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $36 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $33 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $32 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $15 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $11 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $7 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $32 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 99¢ $32 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records