Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a81…06bc world 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%36W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$10
politics 25% $0
other 23% −$3
sports 6% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 27 +5.7% -4.3% 22% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 74 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 4% -9.9%
all 107 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -10.1%
10% -16.6% 5% -18.7%
15% -24.7% 3% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses36 / 71
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage528d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $9 $0 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $38 −$2 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $120 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 −$3 -16%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $86 −$3 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $73 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $30 −$3 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $46 +$2 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 18 $44 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $3 $0 -12%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $5 $0 -7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +23%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $47 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $34 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $1 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $38 30h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $35 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.01 · official $38.60 · 423 history records