Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9A 0x9a7e…7d4c crypto 1409 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$345 (-5%) realized −$335 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%749W / 604L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$7
14 days−$951
30 days−$536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$410
sports 17% −$17
politics 5% −$62
world 1% −$10
other 0% +$2
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 +24.5% +12.6% 42% 41% -10.5%
≤30d 990 -2.7% -11.9% 54% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 1353 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 47% -16.0%
all 1353 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 47% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 47% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 28% -24.0%
15% -24.8% 21% -31.4%
20% -32.2% 17% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$335
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses749 / 604
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions55
Markets (closed)1353 / 1409
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 1353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 37¢ 55¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+48%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? No 16¢ 97¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+498%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? No 11¢ 18¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 88¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+106%)
Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? Yes 84¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-35%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 47¢ 82¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+76%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 35¢ 20¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 56¢ 61¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 47¢ 47¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 42¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? No 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $3 +$2 +46%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $4 −$3 -80%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -49%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $4 +$3 +78%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +21%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $8 +$3 +35%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +74%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 +$6 +131%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $9 +$7 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $9 −$3 -36%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $3 +$2 +80%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 −$2 -79%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $5 −$3 -63%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 39¢ $4 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 35¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 6h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal SELL Sumit Nagal 1¢ $0 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 11¢ $3 7h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Jack Pinnington Jones 16¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 26¢ $1 7h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Frances Tiafoe 82¢ $4 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY No 16¢ $1 7h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 17¢ $2 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 36¢ $2 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 65¢ $3 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL No 35¢ $2 8h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $5 8h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal BUY Sumit Nagal 41¢ $2 8h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 42¢ $2 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 12¢ $1 8h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $5 8h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 32¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.91 · official $132.55 (match) · 3500 history records