Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a7e…c09c other 68 markets active 22h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$277 (-6%) realized −$347 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$286
14 days−$290
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$894
other 40% −$15
sports 4% +$755
crypto 2% +$2
world 2% −$89
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.6% -21.8% 29% 29% -48.8%
≤30d 9 -19.0% -26.7% 22% 22% -48.6%
≤90d 9 -19.0% -26.7% 22% 22% -48.6%
all 58 -45.3% -50.5% 14% 12% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.5% 12% -17.7%
10% -55.3% 9% -25.6%
15% -59.6% 9% -32.8%
20% -63.5% 9% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$28 · ×4.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1,399
Realized−$347
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 50
Open positions10
Markets (closed)58 / 68
History coverage474d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $230 $245 +$15 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $180 $189 +$9 (+5%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $94 $102 +$8 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $125 $99 −$27 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$25 -25%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $120 −$15 -12%
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $102 −$72 -71%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $104 −$83 -80%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 14 $207 −$101 -49%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -39%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Mercer Bears vs. Washington State Cougars Dec 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $137 +$799 +582%
Will Rui Moreira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Dong-yeon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trzaskowski or Nawrocki win the diaspora vote? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $335 −$2 -1%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $259 −$24 -9%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $200 −$104 -52%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $655 −$270 -41%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel win the Romanian presidential election? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $24 −$14 -59%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $13 +$41 +312%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ilir Meta be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 el May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sławomir Mentzen win the most votes in the first round of the Pol May 17 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? May 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 4¢ $104 21h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 21h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $78 21h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 21h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $23 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $72 21h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 21h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 37h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 2d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 2d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $104 7d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 6¢ $74 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 11d
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 12d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 13d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $98 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 22d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $82 22d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 22d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 22d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 22d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,398.92 · official $1,398.92 (match) · 351 history records