Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9A
0x9a7d…4f74
sports · 68 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$740 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$740 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$5
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$2
14 days−$14
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $212 $0 −$212 (-100%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Celtics 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$271 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 9AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $262 $0 −$262 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $6 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $6 +$7 +114%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $9 +$4 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 +$7 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $4 +$6 +146%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $6 +$5 +89%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 24 $8 +$5 +59%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 24 $8 +$5 +65%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 19 $8 +$5 +73%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 19 $7 +$6 +82%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 19 $6 +$7 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) May 09 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 09 $3 +$3 +101%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 09 $3 +$3 +96%
Magic vs. Pistons May 09 $4 +$2 +67%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 09 $4 +$3 +89%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Apr 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 26 $7 +$6 +86%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Apr 26 $7 +$7 +102%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 215.5 Apr 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 23 $5 +$6 +105%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 23 $7 +$7 +101%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Apr 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% +$1,008
politics 30% −$2
sports 16% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $5 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 27h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $6 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $4 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 6d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $6 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $3 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 12d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 13d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 37¢ $2 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 16d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $2 17d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $3 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $7 18d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $3 19d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $3 19d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 21d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 43% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -22.1% -29.5% 38% 38% -10.8%
≤90d 59 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 41% -20.4%
all 67 -18.5% -26.2% 42% 42% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 42% +5.1%
10% -33.3% 42% -5.0%
15% -39.8% 42% -14.2%
20% -45.7% 39% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.86 (match) · 172 history records