Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9A 0x9a7c…579f other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$38 (-20%) realized −$36 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +343% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +301% what you keep after slip
Net edge+301%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 119d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$7
world 22% −$41
sports 10% −$7
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+301.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +637.6% +567.4% 67% 67% +11.6%
≤30d 3 +637.6% +567.4% 67% 67% +11.6%
≤90d 3 +637.6% +567.4% 67% 67% +11.6%
all 5 +343.4% +301.1% 40% 40% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +301.1% 40% -51.2%
10% +262.7% 20% -55.9%
15% +227.7% 20% -60.1%
20% +195.6% 20% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +343% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage119d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $72 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 +$5 +39%
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $37 −$36 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $73 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 50¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 74¢ $8 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $9 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $19 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $14 3d
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $4 119d
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $2 119d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $1 119d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 5¢ $17 119d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 5¢ $20 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.30 · official $69.30 (match) · 19 history records