Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a7c…84d6 other 149 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,613 (+1%) realized +$1,613 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%31W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,485per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$31
14 days−$54
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$109
other 36% +$65
sports 15% +$1,641
world 5% −$18
economics 2% −$6
culture 2% −$6
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 39 -4.4% -13.5% 5% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 96 -7.2% -16.1% 6% 4% -9.4%
all 148 +1.5% -8.2% 21% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 11% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 10% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 9% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,367) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$8 · ×10.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized+$1,613
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,485
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $432 $432 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,836 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,823 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $3,103 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,149 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,419 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,256 −$4 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $4,617 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3,808 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $60 +$81 +134%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,947 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $2,903 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $280 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,995 −$5 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,893 −$4 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,775 −$4 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,471 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,858 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $3,032 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,608 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? May 19 $839 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,718 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $3,112 −$4 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 07 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $2,535 −$4 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,243 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,225 21m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,535 17h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,537 19h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,378 21h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,380 24h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 41h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 43h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,328 43h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,329 45h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,360 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,362 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $916 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $917 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,394 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,396 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,262 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $432 4d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,508 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,510 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,510 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,512 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,417 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,419 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,616 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,618 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,643 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.29 · official $432.29 (match) · 479 history records