Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a7a…d4bc crypto 240 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (162 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$159 (+1%) realized +$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%58W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day162.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$660
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (162 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -68.2% -71.2% 14% 14% -52.0%
≤30d 240 -10.6% -19.1% 24% 22% -14.4%
≤90d 240 -10.6% -19.1% 24% 22% -14.4%
all 240 -10.6% -19.1% 24% 22% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover162.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 22% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 22% -22.6%
15% -33.9% 20% -30.1%
20% -40.4% 20% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$43 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses58 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day162.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$35 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $258 −$245 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $109 +$109 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $157 −$147 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $75 −$65 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$92 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $263 −$192 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $84 +$201 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $77 −$42 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $38 +$52 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $670 −$88 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1283 history records