Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a79…6fe5 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-7%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$27
other 15% +$23
crypto 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 43% 36% -13.9%
≤30d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 43% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 14 -39.3% -45.1% 43% 36% -13.9%
all 14 -39.3% -45.1% 43% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 36% -13.9%
10% -50.4% 21% -22.1%
15% -55.2% 21% -29.7%
20% -59.6% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$10 +38%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $63 −$56 -88%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $52 +$38 +74%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$8 +19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$21 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $27 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 93¢ $27 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $63 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $23 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan $0 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $21 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $6 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 13¢ $13 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $10 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 98¢ $90 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 55¢ $52 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 99¢ $52 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 83¢ $37 2d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 80¢ $7 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $44 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records