Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a76…02b7 weather 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$12
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.9% -10.3% 92% 8% -7.4%
≤30d 26 -7.7% -16.5% 77% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 26 -7.7% -16.5% 77% 8% -9.0%
all 26 -7.7% -16.5% 77% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 8% -9.0%
10% -24.5% 4% -17.7%
15% -31.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -38.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage17d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? Jun 27 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? Jun 24 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $71 11h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $70 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $58 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 86¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $50 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $50 28h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? SELL No 36¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 58¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL No $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records