Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9A 0x9a76…6dfd politics 15 markets active 7d ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$1
sports 27% $0
crypto 20% $0
economics 13% $0
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage90d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $99 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $99 6d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $99 7d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $99 19d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $99 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $99 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $99 29d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 31d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 31d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $99 34d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $99 34d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $99 38d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $99 38d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $100 59d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $100 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 99¢ $100 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 61d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $101 63d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $101 63d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $101 67d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $101 68d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $101 73d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $84 74d
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $17 74d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $101 77d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $101 78d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 82d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $101 83d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? SELL No 100¢ $101 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $99 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records