Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

9A 0x9a76…e39e sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$43 (+10%) realized +$65 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +157% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +123% what you keep after slip

Net edge+123%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+132.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+156.7%	+132.2%	62%	62%	+130.2%
≤30d	8	+156.7%	+132.2%	62%	62%	+130.2%
≤90d	8	+156.7%	+132.2%	62%	62%	+130.2%
all	8	+156.7%	+132.2%	62%	62%	+130.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+132.2%	62%	+130.2%
10%	+110.0%	62%	+108.2%
15%	+89.7%	62%	+88.1%
20%	+71.1%	62%	+69.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +154% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +157% · $-wt +154% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$15 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.27 per $1 lost it wins $7.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$193

Realized+$65

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)8 / 16

History coverage4d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$140	$141	+$1 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	11¢	$20	$18	−$2 (-8%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	50¢	50¢	$15	$15	+$0 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	66¢	32¢	$20	$10	−$10 (-52%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	54¢	24¢	$20	$9	−$11 (-55%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$30	+$28	+93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even?	Jun 14	$10	+$9	+93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-95%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 14	$5	−$1	-19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$34	−$33	-98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United	Jun 13	$8	+$44	+541%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$10	+$49	+474%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-	Jun 12	$72	+$191	+266%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	23¢	$15	36m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$15	39m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$144	54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	66¢	$20	59m
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	54¢	$20	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$59	10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	1¢	$0	21h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	22h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	SELL Yes	6¢	$4	23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even?	BUY Odd	51¢	$10	23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jap	BUY	14¢	$10	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	24h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	20¢	$10	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$14	24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN	BUY	12¢	$12	43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United	BUY	15¢	$8	2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-	BUY	27¢	$72	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.98 · official $207.98 · 24 history records