Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a75…d28c sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$192 (-4%) realized −$187 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 44% -16.0%
≤30d 9 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 44% -16.0%
≤90d 9 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 44% -16.0%
all 9 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 44% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 44% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -24.0%
15% -31.6% 0% -31.4%
20% -38.3% 0% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$197 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 80¢ $381 $378 −$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $406 −$314 -77%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $417 +$80 +19%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $381 +$103 +27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $374 −$83 -22%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $403 +$90 +22%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $348 +$101 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $312 −$1 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,091 +$111 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $522 −$391 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $157 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $103 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $383 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $92 58m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $497 59m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $417 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 91¢ $476 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $406 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $8 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $381 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $291 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $493 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $403 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $367 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $9 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $14 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $10 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $278 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $312 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $348 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $543 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $542 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $549 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $131 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $522 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.14 · official $632.14 (match) · 30 history records