Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9A 0x9a75…f3a3 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate54%28W / 24L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
other 20% +$1
politics 16% +$1
crypto 9% −$1
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 8% -8.4%
all 52 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.78 per $1 lost it wins $2.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses28 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $93 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $28 +$4 +14%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $27 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 22 $7 $0 -6%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win the most votes in the first round of the Po May 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 08 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 23 $15 $0 -3%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $17 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 11 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 55°F or below on March 27? Mar 27 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $14 43h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $28 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $3 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $31 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $31 17d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $31 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $32 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $31 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 63¢ $5 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 63¢ $26 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $9 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $18 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records