Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a71…4a7e other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
other 35% −$1
politics 16% $0
crypto 8% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 46 +3.1% -6.7% 30% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -15.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -23.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -31.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 6.286229358583119% → late 0.00012498110709230798% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage438d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $63 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Primoz Roglic win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 04 $23 $0 +2%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will turnout be between 900000 and 1000000 in the NYC Democratic mayor Jul 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish second in the 2025 Drivers Champions Jun 25 $0 $0 +150%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $2 $0 -6%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 03 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 7h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 39h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $24 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $20 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $30 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $31 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 123 history records