Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a71…49bc other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$579 (-7%) realized −$337 · open −$242
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%38W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$585
7 days+$585
14 days+$585
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$7
crypto 22% −$235
sports 14% −$285
politics 3% +$80
world 2% −$126
finance 1% +$41
economics 0% −$20
culture 0% +$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +120.7% +99.7% 100% 100% +99.7%
≤30d 2 +10.4% -0.2% 50% 50% +61.6%
≤90d 5 -27.3% -34.3% 40% 40% +51.9%
all 69 -13.1% -21.4% 55% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 48% -13.4%
10% -28.9% 30% -21.7%
15% -35.8% 25% -29.2%
20% -42.1% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$78 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$242
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses38 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)69 / 75
History coverage266d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 100¢ $300 $380 +$80 (+27%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 13¢ $500 $173 −$327 (-65%)
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $6B? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+91%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Ledger IPO closing market cap above $7B? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $484 +$585 +121%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the NYSE choose Solana? Apr 04 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? Mar 03 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Feb 23 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 14 $120 −$20 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 14 $119 −$16 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 14 $120 −$96 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 14 $40 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 14 $60 −$56 -93%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 14 $50 +$48 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $100 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $54 +$132 +244%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Feb 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Feb 11 $4 +$2 +33%
Will Justin Sun meet with Elon Musk in 2026? Feb 05 $3 $0 +15%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January? Feb 03 $134 −$134 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-25? Feb 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31? Feb 03 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31? Feb 03 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Solana dip to $120 January 19-25? Jan 26 $37 +$63 +170%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jan 25 $17 +$13 +74%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 23 $160 +$75 +47%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 22 $116 +$22 +19%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during the Board of Peace Ch Jan 22 $31 +$21 +67%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 21 $40 +$5 +14%
Will Pink perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jan 21 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 21 $80 −$57 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $302 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,069 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $484 7d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 17d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 21d
Will the NYSE choose Solana? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 76d
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 57¢ $17 108d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-23? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 116d
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $17 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $30 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $30 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $30 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $103 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $22 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $19 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $20 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.65 · official $582.66 (match) · 193 history records