Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a6a…339e other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 701d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate88%85W / 12L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% +$5
other 25% $0
sports 5% −$12
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% +$3
economics 1% +$1
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 22 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.2%
all 97 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

701d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses85 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)97 / 109
History coverage701d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 16 $8 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 16 $10 $0 +5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 25 $6 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Feb 25 $7 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 25 $7 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $10 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 03 $12 $0 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 03 $16 +$1 +6%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 03 $31 +$2 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 25 $8 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 10 $6 $0 +7%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 10 $6 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 10 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7? Nov 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 17d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $6 22d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $18 22d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 34d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $7 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 95¢ $5 34d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 34d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 34d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 61d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 61d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 61d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $9 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.01 · official $102.01 (match) · 285 history records