Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a67…46e7 crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+0%) realized +$231 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%39W / 12L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,033per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,214now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$36
14 days+$71
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 34 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 51 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$3,187) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×20.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×402.54 per $1 lost it wins $402.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$4,214
Realized+$231
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses39 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage246d
Avg bet$2,033
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,213 $4,214 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $4,205 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,197 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $4,194 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,190 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $4,185 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4,178 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $4,178 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,612 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,548 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,541 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,609 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,536 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,606 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2,531 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,603 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,529 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,600 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,920 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $600 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,509 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $916 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $3,187 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3,184 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $4,088 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $4,074 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? May 25 $4,043 +$30 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 21? May 21 $4,024 +$19 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,406 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $2,613 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 16 $2,609 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? May 15 $1,403 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 14 $2,601 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13? May 13 $1,402 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 12? May 12 $1,400 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $501 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 9? Nov 10 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 8? Nov 09 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 08 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 6? Nov 07 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? Nov 06 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 4? Nov 05 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? Nov 01 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Oct 31 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 29? Oct 30 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 27? Oct 26 $499 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on October 25? Oct 26 $499 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4,214 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,903 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $400 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,000 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,197 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $4,194 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $4,190 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $4,185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $4,178 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $4,178 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $4,148 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2,548 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,612 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,541 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,609 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,536 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,606 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,531 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1,603 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,431 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $399 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $399 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,214.29 · official $4,214.29 (match) · 125 history records