Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9A 0x9a62…fc1a sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-16%) realized −$117 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$11
other 35% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 33% -11.3%
≤30d 30 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 33% -11.3%
≤90d 30 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 33% -11.3%
all 30 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 33% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.3% 33% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -39.7% 30% -19.8%
15% -45.5% 30% -27.5%
20% -50.9% 20% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 20¢ 18¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $198 +$86 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $24 +$19 +79%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa to win the second half? Jun 18 $6 +$15 +243%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 18 $15 +$29 +188%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $20 +$41 +203%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$3 +44%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
England vs. Croatia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 17 $5 +$7 +145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $101 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $16 7m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 23¢ $24 16m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $124 45m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 44¢ $87 58m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 12¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $52 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 39¢ $74 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 24¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 55¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 13¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 28¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $10 5h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $43 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $24 14h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus - Map 1 Winner BUY Dplus 15¢ $10 15h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 25¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 40¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.00 · official $131.00 · 70 history records