Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a60…0df7 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+20%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR89%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$34
other 46% +$45
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +89%
net ROI/market (all)+37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +52.4% +37.9% 89% 89% +29.3%
≤30d 9 +52.4% +37.9% 89% 89% +29.3%
≤90d 9 +52.4% +37.9% 89% 89% +29.3%
all 9 +52.4% +37.9% 89% 89% +29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.9% 89% +29.3%
10% +24.7% 67% +16.9%
15% +12.7% 67% +5.6%
20% +1.6% 44% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×15.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×124.05 per $1 lost it wins $124.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Yes 42¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $6 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$7 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $56 +$9 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $47 +$9 +19%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 +$21 +145%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$6 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $11 30m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $23 30m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 44¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 56¢ $6 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $17 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 99¢ $65 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 85¢ $56 3h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 99¢ $56 4h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 83¢ $47 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 17h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 20h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $29 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $20 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 28h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.22 · official $45.71 (match) · 23 history records