Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9A 0x9a60…be51 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$111 (+12%) realized +$259 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$148
sports 38% +$104
world 21% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 50% +7.7%
≤30d 4 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 50% +7.7%
≤90d 4 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 50% +7.7%
all 4 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 50% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 50% +7.7%
10% +0.4% 50% -2.6%
15% -9.3% 25% -12.0%
20% -18.2% 25% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$6 · ×5.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.52 per $1 lost it wins $17.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$259
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 89¢ 55¢ $382 $234 −$148 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $200 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $306 +$90 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $25 +$21 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$6 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 87¢ $101 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $203 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 91¢ $196 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $200 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $70 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $40 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 84¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $26 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 68¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 50¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 95¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 10¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.93 · official $233.93 (match) · 23 history records