Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9A 0x9a5f…fbb0 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,762 (-63%) realized −$1,762 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$32
14 days−$1,817
30 days−$1,817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$1,795
other 24% +$51
crypto 4% +$28
sports 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.8% -12.9% 88% 38% -13.2%
≤30d 10 -11.3% -19.8% 80% 40% -68.4%
≤90d 10 -11.3% -19.8% 80% 40% -68.4%
all 10 -11.3% -19.8% 80% 40% -68.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 40% -68.4%
10% -27.5% 10% -71.4%
15% -34.5% 0% -74.2%
20% -40.9% 0% -76.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$948 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,762
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage17d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $105 +$5 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $89 +$10 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $84 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $1,912 −$1,795 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 95¢ $105 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $100 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $98 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $89 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $84 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $100 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 1¢ $117 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 19¢ $1,912 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records